Integration of biological, economic and sociological knowledge by Bayesian belief networks: the interdisciplinary evaluation of potential Baltic salmon management plan

There is a growing need to evaluate fisheries management plans in a comprehensive interdisciplinary context involving stakeholders. In this paper we demonstrate a probabilistic management model to evaluate potential management plans for Baltic salmon fisheries. The analysis is based on several studies carried out by scientists from respective disciplines. The main part consisted of biological and ecological stock assessment with integrated economic analysis of the commercial fisheries. Recreational fisheries were evaluated separately. Finally, a sociological study was conducted aimed at understanding stakeholder perspectives and potential commitment to alternative management plans. In order to synthesize the findings from these disparate studies a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology is used. The ranking of management options can depend on the stakeholder perspective. The trade-offs can be analysed quantitatively with the BBN model by combining, according to the decision maker’s set of priorities, utility functions that represent stakeholders’ views. We show how BBN can be used to evaluate robustness of management decisions to different priorities and various sources of uncertainty. In particular, the importance of sociological studies in quantifying uncertainty about the commitment of fishermen to management plans is highlighted by modelling the link between commitment and implementation success.Baltic salmon, bio-economic modelling, Bayesian Belief Network, expert knowledge, fisheries management, commitment and implementation uncertainty, management plan, recreational fisheries, stakeholders., Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Experiences in Bayesian Inference in Baltic Salmon Management

We review a success story regarding Bayesian inference in fisheries management in the Baltic Sea. The management of salmon fisheries is currently based on the results of a complex Bayesian population dynamic model, and managers and stakeholders use the probabilities in their discussions. We also discuss the technical and human challenges in using Bayesian modeling to give practical advice to the public and to government officials and suggest future areas in which it can be applied. In particular, large databases in fisheries science offer flexible ways to use hierarchical models to learn the population dynamics parameters for those by-catch species that do not have similar large stock-specific data sets like those that exist for many target species. This information is required if we are to understand the future ecosystem risks of fisheries.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-STS431 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Täytyykö tosiaan silakoitakin laskea?

Vastaus tämän kirjoituksen otsikkoon on, että ”Täytyy”. Onneksi niitä ei kuitenkaan tarvitse kaikkia laskea käsin, sillä Suomen tehokkaan puoleinen silakan kalastuslaivasto pyytää vuodessa yli 3 miljardia silakkaa. Suomella on vuosittain noin 100 000 tonnin kokonaissaalis, joka on sama kuin kaksi jalkapallokenttää rinnakkain ja niiden päällä on 18 metriä paksu silakkakerros. Kun tämä massa jaetaan 30 grammalla, joka on kutakuinkin silakoiden keskipaino saaliissa, saadaan 3,3 miljardia silakkaa. Tämän kokoiset kalat ovat jo kerran kuteneita, sillä silakka tulee sukukypsäksi noin 20 gramman painoisena

Growing into interdisciplinarity: how to converge biology, economics and social science in fisheries research?

It has been acknowledged that natural sciences alone cannot provide an adequate basis for the management of complex environmental problems. The scientific knowledge base has to be expanded in a more holistic direction by incorporating social and economic issues. As well, the multifaceted knowledge has to be summarized in a form that can support science-based decision making. This is, however, difficult. Interdisciplinary skills, practices, and methodologies are needed that enable the integration of knowledge from conceptually different disciplines. Through a focus on our research process, we analyzed how and what kind of interdisciplinarity between natural scientists, environmental economists, and social scientists grew from the need to better understand the complexity and uncertainty inherent to the Baltic salmon fisheries, and how divergent knowledge was integrated in a form that can support science-based decision making. The empirical findings suggest that interdisciplinarity is an extensive learning process that takes place on three levels: between individuals, between disciplines, and between types of knowledge. Such a learning process is facilitated by agreeing to a methodological epoch and by formulating a global question at the outset of a process.v2012o

On risk management of shipping system in ice-covered waters : Review, analysis and toolbox based on an eight-year polar project

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The AuthorsWith the climate change, polar sea ice is diminishing. This, on one hand, enables the possibility for e.g., Arctic shipping and relevant resource exploitation activities, but on the other hand brings additional risks induced by these activities. Increasing research focuses have been observed on the relevant topics in the complex and harsh polar environment and its fragile ecosystem. However, from risk management perspective, there is still a lack of holistic analysis and understanding towards safe shipping in the ice-covered waters and its available models applicable for managing risks in the system. Therefore, this paper aims to establish a framework and analysis for better understanding of this gap. The paper targets a comprehensive and long-term project specifically focusing on holistic safe shipping in ice-covered waters as the analysis basis. It firstly creates a holistic framework for the shipping system in ice-covered waters and then implements review and analysis of project publications on their overall features. Quantitative prediction models are selected for a structured applicability analysis. Furthermore, an extensive review outside the project following the elements established for the holistic shipping system is conducted so that this paper provides an overview of models for the shipping system in ice-covered waters, addressing the status of the current toolbox. Moreover, it helps to identify the next scientific steps on risk management of shipping in ice-covered waters.Peer reviewe

A realist evaluation of the individual transferable quota system used in Finnish herring fisheries

Rights-based management, such as the individual transferable quota (ITQ) system, is a popular approach for pursuing economic, social, and environmental sustainability in fisheries, with a variety of outcomes. This variety appears to be explained by the contextual differences between the targeted fisheries. By acknowledging that each fishery is unique, we need to apply holistic evaluation methods to understand the mechanisms causing different outcomes in fisheries interventions. Here, we apply the realist evaluation (RE) approach to evaluate the ITQ system implemented in the Finnish herring fishery. This study serves two purposes: () it outlines the realized outcomes of the Finnish management system in relation to the expected outcomes and () it introduces the RE method to the field of fisheries management. Measured in economic terms, the results indicate the new management system to be a success, although the benefits are more prominent for large-scale fishers. The context did not allow small-scale fishers to reap the theorized benefits of the ITQ system, leading to a somewhat more uncertain future for the sector. The RE approach proved to be a useful tool, well-suited to the evaluation of fisheries management systems.Peer reviewe

Suomenlahden öljyiset riskit

Non peer reviewe